The World Bank, according to it’s most recent Commodity Markets Outlook, global cocoa prices are expected to decrease by more than half in 2026 after hitting record highs in recent years.
According to the analysis, cocoa prices would drop from around $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to about $3.80 per kilogram in 2026, a 51.3 percent decrease, before marginally increasing to about $4.20 per kilogram in 2027.
Expectations that the world’s cocoa supply will progressively rebound following acute shortages that drove prices to all-time highs over the previous two years are reflected in the steep decline.
The forecast is included in the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which predicts a general slowdown.
Cocoa was one of the commodities that saw exceptional price jumps during the current supply issue, according to the estimates.
However, future market pressures are anticipated to be lessened by better manufacturing circumstances and a gradual change in global supply chains.
According to the analysis, cocoa prices may continue to be unusually high in comparison to historical norms despite the anticipated fall, suggesting ongoing volatility in agricultural commodities markets.
The anticipated decline in prices might have an impact on export revenue and farmer incomes for major cocoa-producing nations like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together produce most of the world’s cocoa.
Additionally, the paper points out that larger commodities markets are probably going to continue to be vulnerable to patterns in global economic growth, geopolitical events, and weather-related shocks.
